The Election Outcome - What it Means

The results of Israel’s elections are in. As I predicted in yesterday’s posting, the polls proved to be inaccurate, and Ehud Olmert’s Kadima party came in with 28 seats while the right-wing and religious parties did better than expected.

It will take some time for the dust to settle, and for the demands of the various factions to become clear. But at this stage, it is worth noting the following key points regarding the outcome:

1 - Olmert did not receive a mandate for further withdrawals. His Kadima party got fewer than a quarter of the votes, which is hardly a ringing endorsement by the electorate for his plan to uproot thousands of Jews from their homes.

2 – The anti-religious left was nearly wiped off the political map. In the outgoing Knesset, Shinui and Meretz together had more than 20 seats, or over one-sixth of the parliament. In this week’s balloting, Shinui was erased from the political scene, and Meretz dropped to just four seats. This is a stinging slap in the face to these two parties, whose platforms focused on making Israel into a more secular, and less Jewish, state.

3 – The electorate is growing increasingly disenchanted with “politics as usual”. With 28 seats, Kadima may be the leading party, but this is among the smallest number of mandates ever to be held by the largest faction in the Knesset. A loud and clear protest vote took place, with the joint National Union-National Religious Party receiving just 9 seats, and the Likud getting a mere 11. Votes flowed in large numbers to Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu (13 mandates) and the Pensioners’ Party (7 mandates).

Obviously, Israelis are tired of being duped by politicians, who promise one thing before the election only to carry out something entirely different afterwards.

And frankly – who can blame them?

Comments

[Louis]

Meretz is not anti-religious! If it is so anti-religious, why did their number 6 spot include a Haredi woman? Secondly, if 28 seats is not a ringing endoresment for further withdrawals, so much less then is 21 something seats (Likud plus NRP) an endoresment of continuing the occupation. Please, accept that the center left is in power now and accept that most Israelis do not share your views. Even your other right winger, Lieberman, supports giving up land.

[Jayce]

Not only do we have corrupt politicians, courts, media, and police, we also have election fraud to contend with.
Conservative voters make the treak to their polling place only to find their names have been crossed off and are told they have already voted. Poll Observers to prevent fraud are held up by police "under orders from high up" from reaching the most suspect polling places. They still find on arrival that some parties have paid big money for votes. In some Israeli Arab neighborhoods, there is no voting, just a committee who decides how many votes go to which parties based on the bribe deals they're "honoring". At my religious village voting place, I found 3 unhelpful, unsmiling, strange men who looked like security agents. I had a feeling then that our votes were headed for the dustbin.

There's more, but the point is that I don't trust the election results either.

When 80% of the Jews of Israel, secular or not, are pro God, the Land and the People of Israel, how can a party whose only platform is the further destruction of Jews and our Land get any votes, let alone the most votes?
Any answers?

Well, with my eyes heavenward I voted for Israel. I did my best, although my party didn't win. Now it's HaShem's turn. My hope is that I can hold on for the ride. Any suggestions, Michael, on what we can do now that the wolves are in charge?

[Ora]

Meretz is anti-religious because they want to remove Torah laws and values from the government. Their number 6 spot has her own bizarre reasons for being there, I'm sure, although please note that, to nobody's surprise, she's not going to be sitting in the Knesset.

As for Kadima's 28, the religious parties (Shas+Gimmel+ NU) also had 28. Does that mean that Israelis are officially endorsing a state ruled by halacha? That point aside, I accept that the left (Kadima is NOT center) is in power--for now. Just like the early 90s, as soon as the Right brings a lull in fighting, Israelis vote in the Left. And just like when they voted in Barak and Rabin, Israelis will be happily Left until the attacks start up again (first Katyusha hit Ashkelon yesterday...), at which point they'll run back to the Right with their tails between their legs.

As for "most Israelis"--the Right got 51 seats, and the Left got 62 seats, at least 11 of which represent Arab votes. I don't expect the Arabs to think in Israel's best interest. In terms of Jewish votes, it was 51-51.

[Sabzi]

Unfortunately, Louis is right. Kadima itself only won 28 seats, but Israelis still elected the majority needed to bring about another withdrawal. Whether that's because they're enthusiastic about it or apathetic, the result is the same. You think Olmert cares? He'll do whatever he can get away with.

[Ian Lustick]

Very odd, not very courageous, of fundamentally Freund not to reflect on the absolute incorrectness of his prediction that "the right-wing and religious parties will have a much stronger showing than the polls anticipate. Olmert will be unable to form a stable ruling coalition without reaching across the political spectrum to the right."

In fact, while Labor did at least as well as predicted, Likud was decimated and the Pensioners will head for Labor or Kadima.

Pundits should reflect first of all on their own punditry.

IL

[Charles B. Hall, PhD]

I think the main message from this election is the rejection of the free market economic policies of Netanyahu and Lapid.

[rench]

Whats it all mean.Fowerd.Also the relgios attides are incresing.Mostly the future is unpradictable.Exept there are Laws which govern all things.Such as the withdral from the Gaza.Islamic radicals pushed it to there advantage.The same may be assumed in any further disengagmens.If the Palistinian Arabs use these events as opprtuneties to recongnize Isreal and the extreme makeover needed in the areas were this is of such vital importance,then the elections can be a postive then a negative.But and if all the concerd parties ingnore the laws of nature and push ahead despite or inspite of the past in some dule ideal of some vage reconsilation in this region it would seem a bit less risky to assume more of the same compounding promblems.And these elections will be just a milestone in the history.Thats more or less the way i see it.

[Sarah]

The large number of votes cast for Yisrael Beitenu and the Pensioners seem to indicate that the economy was a greater motivating force in this election than in previous elections, and perhaps greater than the concern for security or the enmity between haredi and non-religious parties. Netanyahu's economic plan has, in the short term, hurt many sectors of society and viewed from that angle it is no surprise that East European immigrants and the elderly Israeli citizens, who lived their entire lives in socialist economic principles, want a promise of more money for the social welfare budgets.